Numerous studies document the ability of the slope of the yield curve (often measured as the difference between the yields on a long-term US Treasury bond and a short-term US Treasury bill) to predict future recessions.1 Importantly, the predictive power of the yield curve seems to endure across many studies, even if the specific measure of the yield curve and other conditioning variables differ. Indeed, with each new episode of “yield curve inversion”—when long-term interest rates fall below short-term interest rates—recession probability models are dusted off and re-estimated. A notable recent episode occurred in 2019, lasting from May through early October and leading to temporary but widespread concern about an impending recession.